The Week That Was
U.S. equities finished mixed but remained near record levels as easing inflation pressure and strong AI-related earnings were offset by higher oil prices, weaker consumer data, and continued concern about long-term interest rates. Small and mid-caps led the way with a bit better than 1% gain for both the R2K and MDY while the SPX rose 0.4%, the Nasdaq was essentially flat and the DJIA declined 0.6%. Sector leadership broadened as nine of eleven sectors were positive led by Energy (XLE) which gained 7.7% followed by Utilities (XLU) which rose by 1.6% and Health Care (XLV) which increased 1.2%. On the losing side, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) fell 1.4% and Materials (XLB) declined 0.6%.
On the earnings front, CoreWeave, Nebius, Cisco and Super Micro strengthened the AI infrastructure thesis as the companies issued very strong outlooks tied to demand for AI compute and reported backlogs that were above Wall Street expectations. CAVA showed unusually strong restaurant traffic reporting a 9.0% same-restaurant sales growth, including 5.3% traffic growth, and beat quarterly profit expectations.
Inflation data were the week's primary macro catalyst. July headline CPI rose 0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y, while core CPI increased 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y as both annual measures eased from June. Producer prices also came in better than feared with headline PPI flat m/m in July while core PPI rose 0.2%. Headline PPI on an annual basis slowed to 4.7% from 5.5%. The benign inflation readings pushed the market implied probability of a September Fed rate increase down to roughly 30%–32% by Friday (CME FedWatch).
Consumer data were considerably weaker. July retail sales fell 0.6% m/m, the first decline in nine months and the largest monthly drop since May 2025. Core retail sales declined 0.3%, while the control group that feeds into GDP fell 0.4%. Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment dropped to 51.0 from 55.2, and one-year inflation expectations edged up to 4.3%. The combination of softer spending and easing inflation raised questions about the durability of consumer-led growth.
The Treasury curve steepened a bit as the 2-year yield declined about 5 basis points to 4.15%, while the 10-year moved about 2 basis points higher to 4.69%. The Treasury's bond auction for the 10-year cleared at its highest yield since 2007 while the 30-year auction at its highest yield since 2001. Oil gained 5.4% as the Strait of Hormuz standoff persisted, gold rose 0.8% and silver gained 1.9%.
U.S. Equity Market Summary — As of 8/14/26
| Asset Class | 1 Wk | 1 Mo | 3 Mo | YTD | 1 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.39% | +3.29% | +4.09% | +14.54% | +21.81% | +21.75% | +13.36% |
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | -0.56% | +2.40% | +7.76% | +12.83% | +21.63% | +17.11% | +10.71% |
| NASDAQ | +0.14% | +2.41% | +0.50% | +15.40% | +23.86% | +25.54% | +13.34% |
| S&P MidCap 400 | +1.07% | +4.05% | +7.36% | +19.74% | +24.77% | +15.52% | +9.20% |
| Russell 2000 | +1.12% | +3.57% | +7.50% | +24.47% | +35.11% | +18.50% | +8.13% |
| Russell Micro Cap | +0.86% | +3.59% | +7.54% | +27.87% | +47.40% | +23.85% | +8.35% |
U.S. Sector Summary — As of 8/14/26
| Cyclical Sectors | 1 Wk | 1 Mo | 3 Mo | YTD | 1 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Cyclical | -1.38% | +1.98% | -0.19% | -0.62% | +3.76% | +12.47% | +6.29% |
| Financials | +0.97% | +3.52% | +13.79% | +7.10% | +11.41% | +20.49% | +10.45% |
| Materials | -0.61% | +3.75% | +2.06% | +16.80% | +18.83% | +10.31% | +6.05% |
| Real Estate | +0.64% | +1.78% | +3.99% | +13.92% | +14.02% | +10.46% | +2.73% |
| Sensitive Sectors | 1 Wk | 1 Mo | 3 Mo | YTD | 1 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comm. Services | +1.53% | +1.35% | -3.30% | -3.49% | +2.85% | +19.99% | +7.40% |
| Energy | +7.67% | +8.71% | +7.37% | +40.36% | +49.19% | +15.02% | +24.59% |
| Industrials | +0.72% | +3.36% | +7.14% | +20.86% | +24.99% | +21.36% | +13.88% |
| Technology | +1.09% | +3.48% | +5.98% | +32.30% | +42.68% | +31.73% | +20.55% |
| Defensive Sectors | 1 Wk | 1 Mo | 3 Mo | YTD | 1 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Defensive | +1.14% | +3.20% | +2.01% | +12.23% | +8.06% | +7.86% | +6.25% |
| Health Care | +1.02% | +5.74% | +14.64% | +9.04% | +27.11% | +8.95% | +6.30% |
| Utilities | +1.61% | -3.02% | -0.69% | +5.18% | +6.06% | +14.81% | +8.43% |
US Equity Style Summary — As of 8/14/26
| Equity Style | 1 Wk | 1 Mo | 3 Mo | YTD | 1 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large Growth | -0.06% | +2.78% | +1.08% | +10.13% | +16.17% | +24.37% | +13.03% |
| Large Blend | +0.44% | +3.34% | +4.31% | +14.33% | +21.52% | +21.99% | +12.94% |
| Large Value | +1.40% | +4.12% | +9.42% | +20.41% | +28.75% | +18.80% | +12.52% |
| Mid Growth | +2.52% | +4.35% | +8.61% | +12.87% | +10.76% | +16.23% | +6.06% |
| Mid Blend | +2.14% | +4.48% | +9.34% | +17.30% | +19.72% | +17.06% | +8.38% |
| Mid Value | +1.86% | +4.58% | +9.88% | +20.23% | +26.21% | +17.20% | +10.28% |
| Small Growth | +1.44% | +4.26% | +6.05% | +21.44% | +28.55% | +17.55% | +5.83% |
| Small Blend | +1.04% | +4.13% | +8.02% | +20.69% | +26.92% | +16.90% | +8.29% |
| Small Value | +0.74% | +4.03% | +9.52% | +20.09% | +25.65% | +16.36% | +9.99% |
International Equity Market Summary — As of 8/14/26
European equities were mixed as investors digested higher energy prices and continued geopolitical uncertainty. The STOXX Europe 600 declined 0.4%, Germany's DAX gained 0.5%, France's CAC 40 fell 0.9% and the FTSE 100 declined 1.4%. Eurozone investor confidence posted its fourth consecutive monthly increase which is a distinct positive given the ongoing Middle East conflict and less than robust growth figures coming from most major Eurozone countries. Of note, the Bank of France estimated that the French economy is expected to grow 0.2% in 3Q26. Another serious heat wave engulfed Europe resulting in wildfires and low Rhine water levels which are creating additional logistical pressure for German industry.
Japanese equities were strong as the Nikkei 225 rose 4.7% and the TOPIX gained 3.0%, helped by strong technology and memory-related earnings and renewed yen weakness. The yen moved toward JPY 159 per USD, while the 10-year JGB yield increased to about 2.87%. Expectations for additional BoJ tightening increased as policymakers continued to highlight inflation risks from currency weakness. Japan's corporate goods price index rose by 7.2% y/y, still near the fastest pace in over three years, despite a moderate downtick from June's 7.3%.
Mainland Chinese equities gave back recent gains as the Shanghai Composite declined 0.3% and the CSI 300 fell 0.6%. July consumer inflation slowed to 0.5% y/y and core inflation to 0.9%, while producer inflation eased to 3.5% from 4.1%. Beijing relaxed additional homebuying restrictions for nonresidents, but investors remained disappointed by the absence of more forceful broad-based stimulus. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 2.2%.
| Region | 1 Wk | 1 Mo | 3 Mo | YTD | 1 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSCI ACWI | +0.68% | +3.57% | +4.40% | +15.65% | +23.98% | +21.50% | +11.77% |
| MSCI ACWI ex USA | +1.32% | +4.00% | +4.44% | +17.30% | +27.73% | +20.26% | +9.43% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets | +2.66% | +3.10% | -0.19% | +22.70% | +36.15% | +22.56% | +8.43% |
| MSCI Europe Stock | +0.06% | +3.87% | +6.79% | +11.99% | +21.12% | +17.81% | +9.36% |
| MSCI Asia Pacific Stock | +2.66% | +4.14% | +2.71% | +23.54% | +33.43% | +22.36% | +9.25% |
| MSCI Latin America Stock | -3.00% | -3.00% | -4.01% | +10.73% | +32.21% | +13.03% | +10.04% |
Chart of the Week — 8/17/26
eBay (EBAY) has been in a strong uptrend since its lows in late 2023 and has recently retraced to support near its rising 50-day moving average around $96. The stock has held this level well and appears to be resuming its uptrend. We believe EBAY can move toward the $115–$120 range on the next leg higher. We would be buyers at current levels with a stop below the 200-day moving average near $65.
The Week Ahead
The week ahead brings a mix of economic data, Fed commentary and corporate earnings as markets assess whether recent datapoints around softer inflation and employment are pointing toward a more favorable policy backdrop and/or the early stages of weaker economic growth. The July FOMC minutes (Wed) should provide additional insight into how policymakers are balancing slowing labor-market conditions against inflation that has been tamed but still remains above the Fed's 2% target. Housing starts and building permits (Tues) will offer another read on a housing market still constrained by elevated mortgage rates, while industrial production (Tues) will help determine whether the recent improvement in manufacturing surveys is translating into stronger actual output. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs (Fri) will provide the first broad look at August business activity, with particular attention on new orders, employment and input prices.
The consumer remains front and center following last week's decline in July retail sales and weaker consumer sentiment. Earnings from WMT, TGT, TJX and ROST should provide important insight into retail traffic, discretionary spending, promotional activity and whether the gap between higher- and lower-income consumers is widening. HD and LOW will provide an additional window into housing-related demand, particularly whether high borrowing costs and limited housing turnover continue to weigh on larger remodeling projects. DE results will help assess agricultural and industrial capital spending, while ADI should provide a useful read on whether the semiconductor recovery is broadening beyond AI-related data center demand.
Internationally, BABA and BIDU will be closely watched for signs of improving Chinese consumer and advertising demand as well as progress monetizing AI and cloud investment. Meanwhile, geopolitical risk remains an important wildcard as lack of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz could put additional upward pressure on oil prices and inflation expectations. With inventories nearing precarious levels, investors appear to be whistling past the graveyard as equity markets remain near record levels despite the lack of any tangible progress on resolving Strait of Hormuz cargo transit issues. Earnings season is winding down and August vacations are moving into full swing, perhaps the perfect recipe for an information “air pocket” that puts a bit of pain into investors' lazy days in the shade.
| Company | Date | EPS Est. |
|---|---|---|
| Fabrinet | Mon Aug 17 | $3.99 |
| Amer Sports, Inc. | Tue Aug 18 | $0.39 |
| The Home Depot, Inc. | Tue Aug 18 | $3.96 |
| Keysight Technologies, Inc. | Tue Aug 18 | $2.48 |
| Toll Brothers, Inc. | Tue Aug 18 | $5.02 |
| Analog Devices, Inc. | Wed Aug 19 | $3.54 |
| The Estée Lauder Companies, Inc. | Wed Aug 19 | $0.47 |
| Lowe's Companies, Inc. | Wed Aug 19 | $3.13 |
| Target Corp. | Wed Aug 19 | $1.93 |
| The TJX Cos., Inc. | Wed Aug 19 | $1.34 |
| Deere & Co. | Thu Aug 20 | $4.43 |
| Walmart, Inc. | Thu Aug 20 | $0.68 |
| Ross Stores, Inc. | Thu Aug 20 | $1.73 |
| BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. | Fri Aug 21 | $1.24 |
| Data Release | Date | Est. |
|---|---|---|
| Empire State Manufacturing Index | Mon Aug 17 | 12.0 |
| NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index | Mon Aug 17 | 34.0 |
| US Housing Starts | Tue Aug 18 | 1.36M |
| US Pending Home Sales MoM | Tue Aug 18 | +0.9% |
| US Industrial Production YoY | Tue Aug 18 | +1.0% |
| FOMC Minutes | Wed Aug 19 | N/A |
| Philly Fed Manufacturing Index | Thu Aug 20 | 25.0 |
| S&P Global Composite PMI Flash | Fri Aug 22 | 53.2 |
| US Index of Consumer Sentiment | Fri Aug 22 | 54.60 |
Key Interest Rates — As of 8/14/26
| Rate | As of | Latest | 1 Mo Ago | 1 Mo % | 1 Yr Ago | 1 Yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Month Treasury | 8/14/26 | 3.79% | 3.73% | +1.6% | 4.48% | -15.4% |
| 2 Year Treasury | 8/14/26 | 4.17% | 4.18% | -0.2% | 3.74% | +11.5% |
| 10 Year Treasury | 8/14/26 | 4.68% | 4.58% | +2.2% | 4.29% | +9.1% |
| 30 Year Mortgage | 8/13/26 | 6.67% | 6.49% | +2.8% | 6.63% | +0.6% |
| US Corporate AAA | 8/13/26 | 5.26% | 5.24% | +0.4% | 4.67% | +12.6% |
| US Corporate BBB | 8/13/26 | 5.53% | 5.53% | 0.0% | 5.09% | +8.6% |
| US Corporate CCC | 8/13/26 | 14.50% | 14.00% | +3.6% | 11.89% | +22.0% |
| Effective Federal Funds | 8/13/26 | 3.63% | 3.62% | +0.3% | 4.33% | -16.2% |
US Economy Indicators
| Indicator | As of | Latest | 1 Mo Ago | 1 Mo % | 1 Yr Ago | 1 Yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 7/31/26 | 55.20 | 49.50 | +11.5% | 61.70 | -10.5% |
| Unemployment Rate | 7/31/26 | 4.10% | 4.20% | -2.4% | 4.30% | -4.7% |
| Inflation Rate | 7/31/26 | 3.40% | 3.50% | -2.9% | 2.70% | +25.9% |
| Manufacturing PMI | 7/31/26 | 55.60 | 53.30 | +4.3% | 48.00 | +15.8% |
| Non Manufacturing PMI | 7/31/26 | 54.10 | 54.00 | +0.2% | 50.10 | +8.0% |
| Retail Sales | 7/31/26 | 660,047 | 665,054 | -0.8% | 628,581 | +5.0% |
| Building Permits | 6/30/26 | 1,367 | 1,423 | -3.9% | 1,399 | -2.3% |
Suggested Readings
- 1Institute For The Study of War: Iran Update Special Report, August 14, 2026
- 2Nvidia Partners with Major Investors to Mobilize Over $500 Billion for AI Infrastructure
- 3Chairman Warsh's Press Conference - July 29, 2026
- 4Watch Malaysia For a Preview of Asia's Coming AI Power Crunch
- 5The Data Center Backlash Is Really About Abundance
Leadership Insight
“As AI computing drives unprecedented demand for semiconductors, there is a large gap between demand and supply for advanced chips. To ensure our supply chain and field teams can support their ramps, our largest customers are giving us longer-term commitments and rolling eight-quarter forecasts. This increased demand visibility gives us high confidence that 2027 will be another strong growth year for Applied Materials. As customers move quickly to bring new fab capacity online while simultaneously optimizing yield and output of their existing production facilities, we also see strong incremental demand for our advanced service solutions.”
Stocks to Watch
For our full list of Stocks To Consider, contact Patrick Mullin at pmullin@timberpointcapital.com
U.S. equities finished mixed but remained near record levels as easing inflation pressure and strong AI-related earnings were offset by higher oil prices, weaker consumer data, and continued concern about long-term interest rates. Small and mid-caps led the way with a bit better than 1% gain for both the R2K and MDY while the SPX rose 0.4%, the Nasdaq was essentially flat and the DJIA declined 0.6%. Sector leadership broadened as nine of eleven sectors were positive led by Energy (XLE) which gained 7.7% followed by Utilities (XLU) which rose by 1.6% and Health Care (XLV) which increased 1.2%. On the losing side, Consumer Discretionary (XLY) fell 1.4% and Materials (XLB) declined 0.6%.
On the earnings front, CoreWeave, Nebius, Cisco and Super Micro strengthened the AI infrastructure thesis as the companies issued very strong outlooks tied to demand for AI compute and reported backlogs that were above Wall Street expectations. CAVA showed unusually strong restaurant traffic reporting a 9.0% same-restaurant sales growth, including 5.3% traffic growth, and beat quarterly profit expectations.
Inflation data were the week's primary macro catalyst. July headline CPI rose 0.1% m/m and 3.4% y/y, while core CPI increased 0.2% m/m and 2.5% y/y as both annual measures eased from June. Producer prices also came in better than feared with headline PPI flat m/m in July while core PPI rose 0.2%. Headline PPI on an annual basis slowed to 4.7% from 5.5%. The benign inflation readings pushed the market implied probability of a September Fed rate increase down to roughly 30%–32% by Friday (CME FedWatch).
Consumer data were considerably weaker. July retail sales fell 0.6% m/m, the first decline in nine months and the largest monthly drop since May 2025. Core retail sales declined 0.3%, while the control group that feeds into GDP fell 0.4%. Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment dropped to 51.0 from 55.2, and one-year inflation expectations edged up to 4.3%. The combination of softer spending and easing inflation raised questions about the durability of consumer-led growth.
The Treasury curve steepened a bit as the 2-year yield declined about 5 basis points to 4.15%, while the 10-year moved about 2 basis points higher to 4.69%. The Treasury's bond auction for the 10-year cleared at its highest yield since 2007 while the 30-year auction at its highest yield since 2001. Oil gained 5.4% as the Strait of Hormuz standoff persisted, gold rose 0.8% and silver gained 1.9%.
| Asset Class | 1 Wk | 1 Mo | 3 Mo | YTD | 1 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | +0.39% | +3.29% | +4.09% | +14.54% | +21.81% | +21.75% | +13.36% |
| Dow Jones Industrials Average | -0.56% | +2.40% | +7.76% | +12.83% | +21.63% | +17.11% | +10.71% |
| NASDAQ | +0.14% | +2.41% | +0.50% | +15.40% | +23.86% | +25.54% | +13.34% |
| S&P MidCap 400 | +1.07% | +4.05% | +7.36% | +19.74% | +24.77% | +15.52% | +9.20% |
| Russell 2000 | +1.12% | +3.57% | +7.50% | +24.47% | +35.11% | +18.50% | +8.13% |
| Russell Micro Cap | +0.86% | +3.59% | +7.54% | +27.87% | +47.40% | +23.85% | +8.35% |
| Sector | 1Wk | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| -1.38% | -0.62% | |
| +0.97% | +7.10% | |
| -0.61% | +16.80% | |
| +0.64% | +13.92% |
| Sector | 1Wk | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| +1.53% | -3.49% | |
| +7.67% | +40.36% | |
| +0.72% | +20.86% | |
| +1.09% | +32.30% |
| Sector | 1Wk | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| +1.14% | +12.23% | |
| +1.02% | +9.04% | |
| +1.61% | +5.18% |
| Style | 1 Wk | 1 Mo | 3 Mo | YTD | 1 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Large Growth | -0.06% | +2.78% | +1.08% | +10.13% | +16.17% | +24.37% | +13.03% |
| Large Blend | +0.44% | +3.34% | +4.31% | +14.33% | +21.52% | +21.99% | +12.94% |
| Large Value | +1.40% | +4.12% | +9.42% | +20.41% | +28.75% | +18.80% | +12.52% |
| Mid Growth | +2.52% | +4.35% | +8.61% | +12.87% | +10.76% | +16.23% | +6.06% |
| Mid Blend | +2.14% | +4.48% | +9.34% | +17.30% | +19.72% | +17.06% | +8.38% |
| Mid Value | +1.86% | +4.58% | +9.88% | +20.23% | +26.21% | +17.20% | +10.28% |
| Small Growth | +1.44% | +4.26% | +6.05% | +21.44% | +28.55% | +17.55% | +5.83% |
| Small Blend | +1.04% | +4.13% | +8.02% | +20.69% | +26.92% | +16.90% | +8.29% |
| Small Value | +0.74% | +4.03% | +9.52% | +20.09% | +25.65% | +16.36% | +9.99% |
The week ahead brings a mix of economic data, Fed commentary and corporate earnings as markets assess whether recent datapoints around softer inflation and employment are pointing toward a more favorable policy backdrop and/or the early stages of weaker economic growth. The July FOMC minutes (Wed) should provide additional insight into how policymakers are balancing slowing labor-market conditions against inflation that has been tamed but still remains above the Fed's 2% target. Housing starts and building permits (Tues) will offer another read on a housing market still constrained by elevated mortgage rates, while industrial production (Tues) will help determine whether the recent improvement in manufacturing surveys is translating into stronger actual output. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs (Fri) will provide the first broad look at August business activity, with particular attention on new orders, employment and input prices.
The consumer remains front and center following last week's decline in July retail sales and weaker consumer sentiment. Earnings from WMT, TGT, TJX and ROST should provide important insight into retail traffic, discretionary spending, promotional activity and whether the gap between higher- and lower-income consumers is widening. HD and LOW will provide an additional window into housing-related demand, particularly whether high borrowing costs and limited housing turnover continue to weigh on larger remodeling projects. DE results will help assess agricultural and industrial capital spending, while ADI should provide a useful read on whether the semiconductor recovery is broadening beyond AI-related data center demand.
Internationally, BABA and BIDU will be closely watched for signs of improving Chinese consumer and advertising demand as well as progress monetizing AI and cloud investment. Meanwhile, geopolitical risk remains an important wildcard as lack of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz could put additional upward pressure on oil prices and inflation expectations. With inventories nearing precarious levels, investors appear to be whistling past the graveyard as equity markets remain near record levels despite the lack of any tangible progress on resolving Strait of Hormuz cargo transit issues. Earnings season is winding down and August vacations are moving into full swing, perhaps the perfect recipe for an information “air pocket” that puts a bit of pain into investors' lazy days in the shade.
| Company | Date | EPS Est. |
|---|---|---|
| Fabrinet | Mon Aug 17 | $3.99 |
| Amer Sports, Inc. | Tue Aug 18 | $0.39 |
| The Home Depot, Inc. | Tue Aug 18 | $3.96 |
| Keysight Technologies, Inc. | Tue Aug 18 | $2.48 |
| Toll Brothers, Inc. | Tue Aug 18 | $5.02 |
| Analog Devices, Inc. | Wed Aug 19 | $3.54 |
| The Estée Lauder Companies, Inc. | Wed Aug 19 | $0.47 |
| Lowe's Companies, Inc. | Wed Aug 19 | $3.13 |
| Target Corp. | Wed Aug 19 | $1.93 |
| The TJX Cos., Inc. | Wed Aug 19 | $1.34 |
| Deere & Co. | Thu Aug 20 | $4.43 |
| Walmart, Inc. | Thu Aug 20 | $0.68 |
| Ross Stores, Inc. | Thu Aug 20 | $1.73 |
| BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. | Fri Aug 21 | $1.24 |
| Data Release | Date | Est. |
|---|---|---|
| Empire State Manufacturing Index | Mon Aug 17 | 12.0 |
| NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index | Mon Aug 17 | 34.0 |
| US Housing Starts | Tue Aug 18 | 1.36M |
| US Pending Home Sales MoM | Tue Aug 18 | +0.9% |
| US Industrial Production YoY | Tue Aug 18 | +1.0% |
| FOMC Minutes | Wed Aug 19 | N/A |
| Philly Fed Manufacturing Index | Thu Aug 20 | 25.0 |
| S&P Global Composite PMI Flash | Fri Aug 22 | 53.2 |
| US Index of Consumer Sentiment | Fri Aug 22 | 54.60 |
European equities were mixed as investors digested higher energy prices and continued geopolitical uncertainty. The STOXX Europe 600 declined 0.4%, Germany's DAX gained 0.5%, France's CAC 40 fell 0.9% and the FTSE 100 declined 1.4%. Eurozone investor confidence posted its fourth consecutive monthly increase which is a distinct positive given the ongoing Middle East conflict and less than robust growth figures coming from most major Eurozone countries. Of note, the Bank of France estimated that the French economy is expected to grow 0.2% in 3Q26. Another serious heat wave engulfed Europe resulting in wildfires and low Rhine water levels which are creating additional logistical pressure for German industry.
Japanese equities were strong as the Nikkei 225 rose 4.7% and the TOPIX gained 3.0%, helped by strong technology and memory-related earnings and renewed yen weakness. The yen moved toward JPY 159 per USD, while the 10-year JGB yield increased to about 2.87%. Expectations for additional BoJ tightening increased as policymakers continued to highlight inflation risks from currency weakness. Japan's corporate goods price index rose by 7.2% y/y, still near the fastest pace in over three years, despite a moderate downtick from June's 7.3%.
Mainland Chinese equities gave back recent gains as the Shanghai Composite declined 0.3% and the CSI 300 fell 0.6%. July consumer inflation slowed to 0.5% y/y and core inflation to 0.9%, while producer inflation eased to 3.5% from 4.1%. Beijing relaxed additional homebuying restrictions for nonresidents, but investors remained disappointed by the absence of more forceful broad-based stimulus. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 2.2%.
| Region | 1 Wk | 1 Mo | 3 Mo | YTD | 1 Yr | 3 Yr | 5 Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSCI ACWI | +0.68% | +3.57% | +4.40% | +15.65% | +23.98% | +21.50% | +11.77% |
| MSCI ACWI ex USA | +1.32% | +4.00% | +4.44% | +17.30% | +27.73% | +20.26% | +9.43% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets | +2.66% | +3.10% | -0.19% | +22.70% | +36.15% | +22.56% | +8.43% |
| MSCI Europe Stock | +0.06% | +3.87% | +6.79% | +11.99% | +21.12% | +17.81% | +9.36% |
| MSCI Asia Pacific Stock | +2.66% | +4.14% | +2.71% | +23.54% | +33.43% | +22.36% | +9.25% |
| MSCI Latin America Stock | -3.00% | -3.00% | -4.01% | +10.73% | +32.21% | +13.03% | +10.04% |
| Rate | Latest | 1 Mo Ago | 1 Mo % | 1 Yr Ago | 1 Yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Month Treasury | 3.79% | 3.73% | +1.6% | 4.48% | -15.4% |
| 2 Year Treasury | 4.17% | 4.18% | -0.2% | 3.74% | +11.5% |
| 10 Year Treasury | 4.68% | 4.58% | +2.2% | 4.29% | +9.1% |
| 30 Year Mortgage | 6.67% | 6.49% | +2.8% | 6.63% | +0.6% |
| US Corporate AAA | 5.26% | 5.24% | +0.4% | 4.67% | +12.6% |
| US Corporate BBB | 5.53% | 5.53% | 0.0% | 5.09% | +8.6% |
| US Corporate CCC | 14.50% | 14.00% | +3.6% | 11.89% | +22.0% |
| Effective Federal Funds | 3.63% | 3.62% | +0.3% | 4.33% | -16.2% |
| Indicator | Latest | 1 Mo Ago | 1 Mo % | 1 Yr Ago | 1 Yr % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 55.20 | 49.50 | +11.5% | 61.70 | -10.5% |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.10% | 4.20% | -2.4% | 4.30% | -4.7% |
| Inflation Rate | 3.40% | 3.50% | -2.9% | 2.70% | +25.9% |
| Manufacturing PMI | 55.60 | 53.30 | +4.3% | 48.00 | +15.8% |
| Non Manufacturing PMI | 54.10 | 54.00 | +0.2% | 50.10 | +8.0% |
| Retail Sales | 660,047 | 665,054 | -0.8% | 628,581 | +5.0% |
| Building Permits | 1,367 | 1,423 | -3.9% | 1,399 | -2.3% |
eBay (EBAY) has been in a strong uptrend since its lows in late 2023 and has recently retraced to support near its rising 50-day moving average around $96. The stock has held this level well and appears to be resuming its uptrend. We believe EBAY can move toward the $115–$120 range on the next leg higher. We would be buyers at current levels with a stop below the 200-day moving average near $65.
“As AI computing drives unprecedented demand for semiconductors, there is a large gap between demand and supply for advanced chips. To ensure our supply chain and field teams can support their ramps, our largest customers are giving us longer-term commitments and rolling eight-quarter forecasts. This increased demand visibility gives us high confidence that 2027 will be another strong growth year for Applied Materials. As customers move quickly to bring new fab capacity online while simultaneously optimizing yield and output of their existing production facilities, we also see strong incremental demand for our advanced service solutions.”
For our full list of Stocks To Consider, contact Patrick Mullin at pmullin@timberpointcapital.com
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